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Express entry reviews

Express Entry – Year-end review: ( Click here to access the PDF of this update)

CIC has issued the 2015 year-end review of its Express Entry system. The review indicates an improvement in a few processing areas, and also confirms that the mix of the immigrants is being tilted towards citizens of visa-exempt countries

The performance of the Express Entry pool, as of January 3, 2016 is as follows:

No.

Totals

Percentages (%)

1

Total # of EE profiles created      191,279

2

Ineligible profiles        88,048

46.03

3

Pending formalities          1,303

0.68

4

Withdrawn or Expired        16,340

8.54

5.

Invited        31,063      136,754

16.23

6

Balance (in pool)        60,042

31.35

The following observations stand out:

-          46% of the profiles created were found ineligible (up from 43% in mid-year review)

-          Only 16.23% of the total profiles were invited to submit official Immigration application

A top-level break-down of the CRS scores in the Express Entry pool are as follows:

-          1.4% candidates with LMIA/ PT Nominations, as indicated by score above 600 (851/60,042)

-          4.2% candidates with score above 450 (2510/60,042)

-          22.55% candidates with score between 400 – 449 (13,537/60,042)

-          36.4% candidates with score between 350-399 (21,851/60,042)

CIC has drawn 10,419 profiles so far in 2016, and the scores have not fallen below 453. The figures above showing app. 2500 candidates with 450 points or more in the pool seem to be reflective of the continuing trend, should the CIC continue to draw app. 1500 candidates in each draw

Assuming that CIC needs to draw app. 30,000 profiles in a year and has drawn 30% of its target, CIC could potentially continue with the same strategy (small and frequent rounds of invitations) without a significant drop in the CRS score.

Let’s look at the results for those invited:

7

Total Invitations issued

31,063

8

Official application received

21,651

69.70

9

Under Process *           5,160

23.84

10

Finalised          16,491

76.16

11

Approved          14,038

85.13

12

Refused            2,433

14.75

13

Visas issued          13,241

14

# of Landings            9,739

*These figures have not been provided in the CIC report, but are calculated

-          About 70% of those invited have applied (up from 58% in mid-year review);

-          76% of those applications have been finalised (Up from 23%) – A huge jump

Out of the finalised Applications, as per the figures provided, 85% have been approved (up from about 39%).

Thus, over 46% of the profiles are found ineligible, and out of those that apply, only 15% have been refused.

Another part of the report covers the Immigration program wise breakdown of numbers. Out of the total 31,063 invitations issued, the distribution is as follows:

Immigration program

Nos.

Percentages (%)

PNP         4,105

13.22

FSW       13,214

42.54

FSTC          2,516

8.10

CEC         11,228

36.15

Thus, the FSW applicants seem to be the largest group at 42% (up from 37%), whereas CEC applicants seem to have been disadvantaged at 36% (down from 42%).

Occupations:

Candidates working as Food Service Supervisors (NOC 6311) or Cook (NOC 6322) were the largest group of invited candidates in 2015 followed by IT professionals (NOC 21), business and finance professionals (NOC 11) or university professors (NOC 40). Those with NOC 63 are more likely to have a lower human capital and a valid job offer while those in NOC 11, 21 and 40 often have high human capital with no valid job offer (their CRS score was in the 450-599 range).

Source Countries:

The report also specifies the top source countries. In the top 10 Countries by Citizenship, 6 are visa-exempt countries (up from 2 pre-EE). This represents a shift in the mix of immigrants to Canada, and may be a significant impact of the new selection system in the long-term.

The trend of the UK and Ireland citizens at nos. 4 (@ 5.8%) and 5 (@ 4.3%) respectively being represented disproportionately, ahead of traditional countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh & Nigeria continued, though China seems to have bounced back at no. 3 (at 5.9%). India continued to dominate, representing 22.4% followed by Philippines (@12.6%).

Interestingly, over 78% of the successful candidates reside in Canada. This appears to speak to the policy success for the Immigration Department that has repeatedly cited studies showing better rate of success for immigrants with Canadian experience or studies.

The data shows 7783 International Student candidates in the pool, with a median score of 408. Removing the 99 with score over 600, the median score would drop further. This confirms the significant challenges the International Students are facing in becoming a PR under the Express Entry system.